“WHATIF” HAZARD ANALYSIS
“What–If” Hazard Analysis is a structured brainstorming method of determining what things can go wrong and judging the likelihood and severity of those situations occurring. The answers to these questions form the basis for making judgments regarding the acceptability of those risks and determining a recommended course of action for those risks judged to be unacceptable.
Assembling an experienced, knowledgeable team is probably the single most important element in conducting a successful “WhatIf” analysis. Individuals experienced in the design, operation, and servicing of similar equipment or facilities are essential. Their knowledge of design standards, regulatory codes, past and potential operational errors as well as maintenance difficulties brings a practical reality to the review. Team members may include the P.I., Laboratory Manager, RM&S representative(s), and representatives with specific skills, as needed (maintenance rep., compressed gas rep., manufacturer rep. etc.).
The next most important step is gathering the needed information. The operation or process must be understood by the review team. If these documents are not available, the first recommendation for the review team becomes clear. Develop the supporting documentation! Effective reviews cannot be conducted without updated reliable documentation. An experienced team can provide an overview analysis, but not without proper documentation.
“WhatIf” questions can be formulated around human errors, process upsets, and equipment failures.
The questions could address any of the following situations:
- Failure to follow procedures or procedures followed incorrectly
- Procedures incorrect or latest procedures not used
- Operator inattentive or operator not trained
- Procedures modified due to upset
- Process conditions upsets
- Equipment failure
- Instrumentation miscalibrated
- Debugging errors
- Utility failures such as power, steam, gas
- External influences such as weather, vandalism, fire
- Combination of events such as multiple equipment failures
To minimize the chances that potential problems are not overlooked, moving to recommendations is held until all of the potential hazards are identified.
The review team then makes judgments regarding the likelihood (e.g., unlikely, possible, quite possible) and severity (e.g., minor, serious, very serious) of the “WhatIf” answers. If the risk indicated by those judgments is unacceptable then a recommendation is made by the team for further action. The completed analysis is then summarized and prioritized, and responsibilities are assigned.
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